tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post7728391921086502447..comments2023-07-04T09:16:12.941-04:00Comments on pmuellr: brainwashedPatrick Muellerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-37469149649368161852008-11-18T16:36:00.000-05:002008-11-18T16:36:00.000-05:00Hi Patrick, good post. We are having a similar dis...Hi Patrick, good post. We are having a similar discussion over on Ajaxian titled "Fixing the Web, Part I":<BR/><BR/>http://ajaxian.com/archives/fixing-the-web-part-i<BR/><BR/>Best,<BR/> Brad NeubergBrad Neuberghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03436380878044525337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-2478649107101294352008-11-17T07:57:00.000-05:002008-11-17T07:57:00.000-05:00Could you be my Morpheus handing me a red pill, pl...Could you be my Morpheus handing me a red pill, please?<BR/><BR/>http://blog.jonasbandi.net/2008/10/java-ee-blue-pill-of-enterprise.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00990537252799084615noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-73385842719984459712008-11-16T22:32:00.000-05:002008-11-16T22:32:00.000-05:00mtnygard, thanks for the comment. Based on Tim's ...mtnygard, thanks for the comment. Based on Tim's comments earlier, realized he was implying compound growth. I know that's how my savings account should be growing :-) , what's not clear to me is whether that is a natural growth curve for the stock market. As I sort of indicated, I think the stock market is largely all voodoo anyway, might as well be concentric circles to me. I suppose treating the DJIA itself, as an average of a number of institutions, as something like a bank account, in terms of growth, makes sense. Something about it doesn't ring true to me though.<BR/><BR/>The point about constraints is key. No matter what kind of positive growth, unless you believe in unlimited, infinite growth, there's got to be a downturn at some point right? I'm just kind of amazed that realtors I've dealt with over the last 20 years throw out the "it's never going down!" line; I have to imagine people believe them.Patrick Muellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-54536305717129388512008-11-16T10:21:00.000-05:002008-11-16T10:21:00.000-05:00Patrick,I agree with your overall argument, but I ...Patrick,<BR/><BR/>I agree with your overall argument, but I have a separate comment about the chart of the DJIA.<BR/><BR/>To me, that perfectly embodies two combined forces: compound growth and overall constraint.<BR/><BR/>Most of the chart looks like an exponential, which suggests the effect of compound growth. In a functioning capital-based system you'd expect exactly that. Capital invested produces more capital. Any time an output is also a required input, you get exponential growth.<BR/><BR/>The interesting thing is that almost everyone looks at exponential growth and expects the hockey stick to keep going up indefinitely. (Until it hits Singularity, I suppose.)<BR/><BR/>No real system can produce infinite growth. Instead, they always hit a constraint. That could be a physical limitation on the available inputs. It could be a limit on the throughput of the system itself. In a sense, it almost doesn't matter what the constraint itself happens to be. Rather, you should assume that a constraint exists.<BR/><BR/>In safe systems, when the system approaches the constraint, marginal throughput will be increasingly diminished by the effect of the constraint, and you'll see a smooth tapering-off of growth. That produces a sigmoidal graph.<BR/><BR/>In systems with a chaotic tendency, the system doesn't slow down at all when approaching the constraint. In fact, it may be increasing at it's greatest rate just before the constraint clamps down hardest. In such cases, you'll either see a catastrophic collapse or a chaotic fluctuation.<BR/><BR/>I don't know what the true constraint was in the financial system. Plenty of other people believe they know, and I'm happy to let them believe what they like. Just from looking at the chart, though, you could make a strong case that we really hit the constraint in 1999 and the rest has been chaos since then.mtnygardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01683596894853322419noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-13280565985581248872008-11-14T10:22:00.000-05:002008-11-14T10:22:00.000-05:00@lococrazy: Actually it has. It's called UNIX ;)@lococrazy: Actually it has. It's called UNIX ;)voidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17362772911543628267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-53876155663520599562008-11-14T10:17:00.000-05:002008-11-14T10:17:00.000-05:00Do you have any options?I would like:1. Sandboxed ...Do you have any options?<BR/>I would like:<BR/>1. Sandboxed enviroment<BR/>2. Zero installation-time<BR/>3. Run on 99.9% of all home-computers _today_<BR/>4. Accessible from everywhere<BR/>5. No dependency-hell<BR/><BR/>Why #1 hasn't hit the desktop-applications yet is to me a huge wtf. Windows now has UAC but i'm still afraid to open random exe-files.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-24029784920645219602008-11-13T18:38:00.000-05:002008-11-13T18:38:00.000-05:00shevegen, you can call out to C libraries in Ruby ...shevegen, you can call out to C libraries in Ruby with <A HREF="http://blog.headius.com/2008/10/ffi-for-ruby-now-available.html" REL="nofollow">ffi</A>. Python 2.5 (maybe earlier?) has ctypes. Smalltalk's have been able to do this for a while as well.Patrick Muellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-11821628567254768022008-11-13T16:40:00.000-05:002008-11-13T16:40:00.000-05:00"In C, for gawd's sake, though life got a lot easi..."In C, for gawd's sake, though life got a lot easier in Smalltalk."<BR/><BR/>I see where you are coming from.<BR/><BR/>For my part, this is ruby.<BR/><BR/>It would be nice if future "scripting" languages would have the REAL power to completely replace the need for any C language. That would be a huge win for ALL the "scripting" languages community.<BR/><BR/>It would be like breaking an old barrier "static vs scripting" attitude (which is harmful by the way as it hinders new ideas)shevyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09636171104216432368noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-16945758184718463362008-11-13T16:35:00.000-05:002008-11-13T16:35:00.000-05:00We all wanted to believe there really was a lot of...<B> We all wanted to believe there really was a lot of money to be made, that level of wealth building going on was somehow sustainable, and that we could all be a part of it.</B><BR><BR><BR/>Nope, I pretty much knew it was BS, or at least came to that conclusion in 2006 when shopping for a house. Now I'm sitting on a pretty down payment and I've never been in debt. <BR><BR> I'd bet that I get screwed over in the end by the government though, since I did the right thing.LordVirhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08262608894469521414noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-36347797731406403462008-11-13T11:41:00.000-05:002008-11-13T11:41:00.000-05:00Well, I have certainly had customers sending me al...Well, I have certainly had customers sending me all sorts of data wrapped up as Microsoft Word documents (or Excel spreadsheets, which is slightly less foolish).<BR/><BR/>I have also developed web sites partially in C++ (as a way of creating COM objects that can be plugged in to ASP), and I would definitely not recommend it.<BR/><BR/>JavaScript is not that bad a language to write in, and things like jQuery and HTML 5 would make the DOM a lot less unreasonable a model of an application UI. If you planned to write an AJAXy app from the start you could come up with a way to write as little server-side code as possible and write it in JavaScript as well (e.g., using CouchDB) and save on learning a separate language for the server. <BR/><BR/>There are projects like SproutCore that are supposed to make it possible to write client and server sides of your app all in one place. <BR/>No idea how well they manage this feat.Damian Cugleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14035230583687290855noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-8798473539580447782008-11-13T11:29:00.000-05:002008-11-13T11:29:00.000-05:00reitoei; thanks for the clarification. I think th...reitoei; thanks for the clarification. I think the directions flex / silverlight are going with web &| desktop style apps is truly some innovative stuff; exactly where i'd like to see plain 'ol HTML, CSS, and JS head. Great competition. Keep it up. BTW, fix the GD mousewheel scroll on the mac, plz. :-)Patrick Muellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-77404774740537066472008-11-13T10:59:00.000-05:002008-11-13T10:59:00.000-05:00cdent; yup, we don't want to throw out all the gre...cdent; yup, we don't want to throw out all the great stuff we've invented and learned over the years with the browsers. I honestly think we can reuse everything, we just need a runtime organization story. Maybe an different shell.Patrick Muellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-53293746968731536592008-11-13T10:48:00.000-05:002008-11-13T10:48:00.000-05:00Apologies Patrick, I meant 'browser manager', as o...Apologies Patrick, I meant 'browser manager', as opposed to 'history object'.<BR/><BR/>PaulUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02171654200156285433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-27591109741216169642008-11-13T10:46:00.000-05:002008-11-13T10:46:00.000-05:00Hi Patrick,Regarding Flex, you can easily bookmark...Hi Patrick,<BR/>Regarding Flex, you can easily bookmark 'pages' in a Flex app using the history object. This forms an integral part of the framework (and a project I have been working on recently).<BR/>Regards,<BR/>Paul McCleanUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02171654200156285433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-47589836601953393122008-11-13T10:27:00.000-05:002008-11-13T10:27:00.000-05:00Interesting stuff.I think it is important to make ...Interesting stuff.<BR/><BR/>I think it is important to make a distinction between the browser, which is basically a thing for reading documents, and the protocols it uses (i.e. HTTP). HTTP presents a huge number of advantages for networked apps on big complex networks.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately when people have tried to make development environments for browsers they tend to lose track of good HTTP behaviors and it is sad.cdenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12783209168567794397noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-41210644184283691682008-11-13T09:54:00.000-05:002008-11-13T09:54:00.000-05:00Hi, I loved your post. I think you summed up what ...Hi, I loved your post. I think you summed up what I have been thinking about web browsers all this time: They were not designed for most of the stuff that is currently done with them. They were designed to see documents. PERIOD.<BR/><BR/>Maybe it's time for someone to come up with a better set of tools/protocols/etc to allow building better interconnected applications. Though I have a hard time it will come from one person only, though :)<BR/><BR/>Anyways, thanks a lot for the post. It was very interesting reading it.<BR/><BR/>Pedrovoidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17362772911543628267noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-65342977261734422722008-11-13T03:43:00.000-05:002008-11-13T03:43:00.000-05:00A logarithmic scale shows change in percentage ter...A logarithmic scale shows change in percentage terms, rather than absolute terms. A 5% increase covers the same length on the scale no matter where along the scale it appears. Thus an exponential growth (such as the stock market, which we're told grows on average about 10% per year) appears as a straight line on a logarithmic graph.Tim Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17648472597829957439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-14203790949867891262008-11-13T01:28:00.000-05:002008-11-13T01:28:00.000-05:00I should have noted a little more explicitly: the ...I should have noted a little more explicitly: the picture is from a Yahoo! Finance Chart. Just scraped it. <BR/><BR/>Fascinating that it becomes linear with the logarithmic scale. Thanks! <BR/><BR/>Though I'm not sure why it gives a better indication of growth over a long period of time. Should have paid attention in Econ. <BR/><BR/>What should the decay curves look like?Patrick Muellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-82748099487387226012008-11-13T01:04:00.000-05:002008-11-13T01:04:00.000-05:00Your chart of the Dow is ingenuous; if you plot it...Your chart of the Dow is ingenuous; if you plot it on a logarithmic scale (which gives a better indication of growth over a long period of time) it is much smoother.Tim Bateshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17648472597829957439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-55628255122252146802008-11-13T00:53:00.000-05:002008-11-13T00:53:00.000-05:00That one of either:- Stockholm Syndrome- the fact ...That one of either:<BR/><BR/>- <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome" REL="nofollow">Stockholm Syndrome</A><BR/><BR/>- the fact that you've never seen a back hoe before<BR/><BR/>You youngsters are in for a treat when we pull our collective heads out of our asses and provide a proper application runtime platform for the web.Patrick Muellerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04900886008475308281noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22367266.post-81713712062909931282008-11-13T00:37:00.000-05:002008-11-13T00:37:00.000-05:00But I like my spoon. :-)But I like my spoon. :-)Bill Higginshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17544790397440710993noreply@blogger.com